The Middle East Forum has argued that the reported killing of senior Polisario Front commander Lahbib Mohamed Abdelaziz in a Moroccan drone operation near the defensive berm highlights what it described as the futility of the separatist group's military ambitions and underscores an irreversible shift in the balance of power in Morocco's favor in the Sahara conflict.
In an analysis published Tuesday, Middle East security and political affairs expert Josey Levi Alvarez said the June 7 operation, which reportedly also killed two other Polisario members, exposed both the vulnerability of the group's command structure and its inability to keep pace with military transformations that have reshaped the region in recent years.
While Morocco has not officially confirmed the strike, the article noted that a Polisario statement acknowledged Abdelaziz's death and indicated that he had been preparing attacks during a visit by a United Nations envoy to the Tindouf camps in Algeria.
According to the Forum, the incident illustrates the growing asymmetry between Morocco and the Polisario Front, particularly in the fields of drone warfare, surveillance, and precision targeting technologies.
The article highlighted Morocco's fleet of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, the introduction of Akinci drones into service, Chinese surveillance platforms, and Israeli targeting systems and loitering munitions acquired following the Abraham Accords. These capabilities, it argued, have provided the Royal Armed Forces with a decisive technological edge.
By contrast, the Polisario Front lacks effective air defense systems capable of countering such technologies, the report said, arguing that this capability gap has fundamentally altered the military balance and changed the cost-benefit equation of the conflict.
On the political front, the article described the Polisario Front as an Algerian proxy established in the 1970s with support from the former Soviet Union and Cuba to pressure Morocco. It argued that the group has used the Tindouf camps to preserve diplomatic relevance and international attention long after the conflict's original dynamics had changed, prioritizing its institutional survival over what the author described as genuine self-determination for Sahrawis.
The analysis also questioned longstanding figures regarding the population of the Tindouf camps. Citing independent estimates, the author said the number of residents is likely between 40,000 and 60,000 people, compared with figures of between 165,000 and 173,000 that have long been promoted by Algeria and the Polisario Front.
The article further referred to a 2007 investigation by the European Anti-Fraud Office that documented the diversion of humanitarian aid intended for the camps, arguing that the case reflected broader concerns regarding aid management and oversight.
In contrast, the Forum pointed to what it described as Morocco's development achievements in its southern provinces, citing infrastructure projects, ports, urban development, and phosphate production at the Bou Craa mine.
The article argued that investments in cities such as Laayoune and Dakhla have strengthened the integration of the southern provinces into Morocco's economy and stand in sharp contrast to conditions in the Tindouf camps.
Diplomatically, the Forum said recent years have brought significant momentum to Morocco's position, pointing to the United States' recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara in 2020 and growing international support for Rabat's autonomy initiative.
The analysis noted that France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of other countries now view Morocco's 2007 autonomy proposal as the most realistic framework for resolving the dispute, while support for a referendum-based solution has steadily declined.
According to the author, the death of a senior commander such as Lahbib Mohamed Abdelaziz could create conditions for further defections within the Polisario Front. The article called for conditional amnesty and reintegration programs aimed at encouraging fighters to abandon armed activity and participate in economic development initiatives.
The Forum also urged Morocco to expand security cooperation with African partners across the Sahel, arguing that the kingdom's experience in drone operations, surveillance, and countering cross-border threats could serve as a model for broader regional security partnerships.
