The planned visit of Spain's King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia to Ceuta and Melilla "came at the wrong time," and "Rabat's response will be proportionate to the scale of what Spain has done," Mohamed Rouin, a Moroccan university professor specializing in Spanish-Moroccan relations, told Assahifa English.
The Spanish Royal Household and government announced on Thursday that the King and Queen will visit Ceuta on 13 October and Melilla on 14 October, the first royal visit to the two cities since 2007, when Morocco recalled its ambassador in Madrid for consultations after a similar trip.
Explaining his assessment, Rouin stressed that there is "a context that cannot be ignored."
He rejected Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares's remark that the monarchy does not ask for permission to visit Ceuta. "I believe this statement is not sound," he said.
Citing Articles 56, 62, 63 and 66 of the Spanish Constitution, Rouin said that "there is coordination between the two institutions," and that "the Royal institution is required to coordinate with, and to seek the permission of, the head of government and the Spanish government."
He explained that the King, as head of state, is not held accountable, since his acts are counter-signed by the head of government, a procedure known in Spain as the "refrendo." "The King does not bear responsibility for what he does. The one who bears responsibility, essentially, is the head of government," he said.
"What does the visit of the King and Queen to Ceuta add? What added value does it bring in such a context?" he asked.
The analyst recalled that the Spanish monarchy has historically played a role in defusing crises, citing the coup attempt of 23 February 1981, when, he said, it asked the military to return to their barracks, as well as "the illegal referendum held in Catalonia," in 2017.
"The Royal institution intervenes to defuse crises. Historically, it does not intervene to reinforce a deviant path in Moroccan-Spanish relations," he said. "The Spanish Royal institution is intervening in such a context to reinforce this deviation, which in reality serves neither party, neither Morocco nor Spain."
"In my assessment, the Spanish Royal institution intervened in the wrong context and at the wrong time, when it could have played other roles," Rouin said, such as helping to mend the rift and to create better conditions for the future of Moroccan-Spanish relations. "It could at least have asked, and this is constitutionally available to it, for this visit to be postponed," he added.
According to Rouin, "Pedro Sánchez is relying on the Royal institution at this historic moment to tip the balance in his favour against his political rivals." He said the context is an electoral one, pointing to next year's elections, pressure from the street and a housing crisis in Spain that is taking on unexpected dimensions.
"The Royal institution in Spain is a neutral institution, given the nature of the political system there. The one who bears political and legal responsibility is, above all, Pedro Sánchez," he said, adding that Sánchez is "responsible, first and last, for this visit from a legal and constitutional standpoint."
On Morocco's possible reaction, Rouin acknowledged that the context and political circumstances differ from 2007. Rabat has several options, foremost among them withdrawing its ambassador, "and this is possible," he said.
"But suspending relations completely, I think it is difficult to go in this direction. There are files that cannot be suspended: cooperation in the fight against terrorism and security cooperation," he said, pointing to Morocco's "historical, moral and legal responsibility" towards the international community.
He also stressed the strategic weight of the Strait of Gibraltar, recalling remarks by Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita on the 14 kilometres separating the two countries, at a time when straits such as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are at the center of regional crises. Rabat will take all these factors into account before taking a position, he said.
Asked how the government of Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, who is still forming her cabinet, could handle the issue, Rouin said that "this file may require the involvement of everyone, all institutions, and not only the head of government," including the Royal institution and political parties.
