A growing confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthis is threatening to unravel the fragile truce that has largely contained Yemen’s conflict since 2022, raising fears that the country could become another front in the widening regional war.
UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg warned that Yemen now faces its greatest risk of a return to large-scale conflict since the UN-brokered truce of April 2022, saying the escalation could jeopardise the gains achieved under the ceasefire and draw Yemen into a broader regional confrontation.
The latest escalation began on July 13, when a Saudi airstrike targeted the runway of Sanaa airport after an Iranian flight carrying a senior Houthi delegation attempted to land without prior approval from the Saudi-led coalition.
The flight, operated by Iran-based Mahan Air, had reportedly sought to establish a new reality regarding access to Yemeni airspace, challenging restrictions imposed by the Saudi-led coalition during the war.
The Houthis rejected an alternative arrangement offered by Yemen’s internationally recognised government, which would have allowed their delegation to travel on a non-Iranian carrier, according to Yemeni government and Houthi officials cited in the report.
The Saudi-led coalition subsequently struck the airport, preventing the Iranian aircraft from landing in Sanaa. As part of an Omani effort to prevent further escalation, the flight was eventually allowed to land in the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port city of Hodeida.
The episode was followed by a sharp escalation. The Houthis attacked Abha airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia and announced what they described as a blockade targeting Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.
Houthi attacks also targeted Saudi vessels and oil facilities inside the Kingdom, adding to concerns over the security of vital energy and shipping infrastructure and the potential impact on the wider global economy.
The Saudi-led coalition responded with airstrikes against Houthi positions in Hodeida and Kamaran Island, while also reinforcing Yemeni government forces along frontline areas in preparation for a possible ground offensive against the Houthis, according to Yemeni officials.
The prospect of a ground offensive prompted the Houthis to launch dozens of missiles and drones against military camps in central and southern Yemen, with attacks reportedly killing troops and civilians. The rebels also targeted the Red Sea city of Mokha, severely damaging its strategically important port, which remains under the control of Yemen’s internationally recognised government.
For Saudi Arabia, the renewed Houthi attacks represent a direct security challenge after the 2022 truce halted major cross-border missile and drone attacks against the Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates.
The confrontation also comes as Riyadh has sought to maintain the relative calm achieved in Yemen after years of war. The Saudi-led coalition intervened in the conflict in March 2015, after the Houthis seized Sanaa and forced the internationally recognised government to relocate first to southern Yemen and later to Saudi Arabia.
The conflict subsequently reached a stalemate, before the April 2022 truce brought an end to major fighting across Yemen and halted Houthi missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The latest escalation is therefore raising concerns in Riyadh and across the Gulf that the relative stability of recent years could collapse, particularly as the Houthis increasingly frame their confrontation with Saudi Arabia around what they describe as Yemen’s sovereignty over its airspace, ports and territorial waters.
UN envoy Grundberg said he has been holding intensive discussions with Yemeni parties and regional governments in an effort to prevent further escalation. Meanwhile, Omani-mediated back-channel talks have focused on preserving the 2022 truce, although they have yet to produce a compromise capable of defusing the latest confrontation.
