Morocco’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday, while projecting economic growth of 4.4% in 2026 as inflation remains subdued and non-agricultural activity is expected to consolidate.
Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) said its decision reflected the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, alongside moderate inflation over the medium term and an expected strengthening of non-agricultural economic activity.
The central bank said it would continue to monitor domestic and international economic developments closely and base its monetary policy decisions on the latest available data at each quarterly meeting.
Inflation averaged 0.3% during the first eight months of 2026 and is expected to reach 0.7% for the full year, before rising to 1.5% in 2027, according to BAM forecasts.
The impact of higher global energy prices on domestic prices has remained limited, the central bank said, partly due to subsidies for road transport operators and the continued maintenance of butane gas and electricity prices.
Core inflation is expected to rise from -0.2% in 2026 to 2.2% in 2027, reflecting the fading impact of lower food prices, particularly olive oil, as well as the persistence of imported inflation.
Inflation expectations have remained well anchored, with financial-sector experts surveyed in the third quarter of 2026 expecting average inflation of 2.1% over the next eight quarters and 2.2% over the next 12 quarters.
Growth outlook
BAM expects Morocco’s economy to grow by 4.4% in 2026, down from 4.9% in 2025, before slowing to 2.9% in 2027.
Agricultural value added is projected to rebound by 16% this year, supported by a cereal harvest estimated by the Agriculture Department at 93 million quintals.
Agricultural output is then expected to decline by 7.6% in 2027, assuming cereal production returns to an average of 50 million quintals.
Non-agricultural activity is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2026, compared with 4.5% in 2025, before accelerating to 4% in 2027.
Trade and foreign reserves
Morocco’s energy import bill is expected to rise by 28.4% to MAD 138.1 billion in 2026, before falling to MAD 116 billion in 2027.
Automotive exports are expected to recover gradually, reaching MAD 202.2 billion in 2027, while exports of phosphates and their derivatives are projected to increase by 9.7% this year and 12.1% in 2027, reaching MAD 122.6 billion.
Travel receipts are expected to continue rising, reaching MAD 160 billion in 2027, while remittances from Moroccans living abroad are projected to reach MAD 136.3 billion.
Foreign direct investment inflows are forecast to remain equivalent to around 3.5% of GDP annually.
Official foreign-exchange reserves are expected to reach MAD 502.8 billion by the end of 2026 and MAD 515.3 billion by the end of 2027, equivalent to around five and a half months of imports of goods and services.
Credit and public finances
Bank lending to Morocco’s non-financial sector is expected to accelerate from 4.8% in 2025 to 8.1% in 2026, before slowing to 6.1% in 2027.
The real effective exchange rate, after appreciating by 2% in 2025, is projected to depreciate by 4.1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
On public finances, ordinary revenues increased by 9.6% during the first eight months of the year, while overall expenditure rose by 10.5%.
Taking into account the 2026 Finance Law, the 2026-2028 three-year budget framework, MAD 20 billion in additional appropriations approved by the government in May, and initial assumptions for the 2027 Finance Bill, BAM projects Morocco’s budget deficit, excluding proceeds from the sale of state holdings, at 3.4% of GDP in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
