As the new war in the Middle East enters its second week, global concerns about energy security are intensifying, with disruptions to oil and gas flows forcing governments and markets to revisit alternative supply routes, including the long-planned Atlantic African gas pipeline linking Nigeria to Morocco and Europe.
The conflict, which began on 28 February 2026 following a joint US–Israeli strike on Iran, has rapidly spread across a wide geographical area, from Iran and Israel to Gulf states, and from Jordan and Iraq to Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The widening military operations have heightened fears of prolonged instability in one of the world’s most critical energy regions, prompting renewed debate over how to secure reliable oil and gas supplies.
One of the immediate consequences of the conflict has been disruption to global energy supply routes.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), announced an emergency halt to production after the closure of the Ras Laffan industrial complex, the world’s largest LNG export facility.
At the same time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime chokepoint through which roughly 21 million barrels of crude oil and about 20% of global LNG shipments pass daily, has intensified market uncertainty.
Energy prices have surged as a result. Natural gas prices in Europe rose by 30% at the start of the week, before climbing by about 50% on Wednesday, while oil prices have also sharply increased.
The price spike has forced European governments to reconsider their energy strategies.
In a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said natural gas prices had risen by 50% and oil prices by 27% since the outbreak of the latest Middle East conflict.
According to von der Leyen, the surge has already cost European consumers around €3bn in additional spending on fossil-fuel imports.
Europe now faces difficult policy choices. Governments could absorb the higher costs by imposing price caps and providing subsidies for electricity and gas, or potentially reopen the door to Russian fossil fuel imports, despite ongoing political tensions linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Von der Leyen warned that returning to Russian energy would represent what she described as a “strategic mistake.”
Energy markets are already responding to the supply uncertainty.
Data cited by Bloomberg indicates that at least eight LNG cargoes originally destined for Europe have been redirected to Asia since the start of the Middle East conflict.
The shift has reduced Europe’s reserve supplies and intensified competition for cargoes on global markets, pushing prices higher.
Against this backdrop, attention is turning again to the Atlantic African Gas Pipeline, a massive infrastructure project designed to transport natural gas from Nigeria along the West African coast to Morocco and eventually to Europe.
The project was first formalised in 2016, when Morocco and Nigeria signed a framework agreement to develop the pipeline.
Planned to extend roughly 5,660 kilometres, the pipeline would have the capacity to transport around 40 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually, potentially supplying both West African countries and European markets.
Supporters argue the project could significantly strengthen energy security for nearly 400 million people in the region.
Negotiations were required with multiple countries along the route, including Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, The Gambia, and Mauritania, before the pipeline would eventually reach Morocco and connect to Europe via the Strait of Gibraltar and Spain.
The project is now entering a stage focused on financing and final technical studies. Its estimated cost is between $25bn and $30bn.
Several institutions have already expressed support, including the European Investment Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, and the OPEC Fund for International Development.
The United Arab Emirates also committed to supporting the project under an agreement signed with Morocco on 8 December 2023.
The turbulence currently affecting global energy markets could attract new investors, particularly in Europe, who are seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern and Russian energy supplies.
If completed, the Atlantic African pipeline could offer Europe a long-term diversification route for natural gas imports while strengthening economic integration across West Africa.
Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with completion targeted for 2031, provided technical, political and financial hurdles are overcome.
For European policymakers grappling with rising energy costs and geopolitical risk, the project is increasingly viewed as a potential gateway to reducing dependence on both Middle Eastern markets and Russian gas.
